The current real estate market can be characterised as ‘stable’. Overall, there has been a slowdown and this is creating a more constant situation, where buyers have more time to make decisions. The sense of panic that we witnessed as recently as six months ago is no longer present, and the buying and selling process is more considered.
We continue to see good results, with property prices remaining strong; but the heat has come off and we are not seeing quick sales or super-inflated prices. Overall, vendors need to adjust their expectations to this market and understand that the FOMO ethos of the last two years has now moved on. But sales prices are positive, excellent results are still being achieved, interest in properties remains strong, and the market continues to hum.
Properties are taking a little longer to sell in comparison to the last two years, and in many ways it feels as if the property market has returned to a more normal situation. This is also reflected in the average time on market, which is now a far more typical three-four weeks.
Like most markets, property supply is sporadic and tending to arrive in dribs and drabs, but those that wish to sell are genuine and there are solid opportunities to purchase good properties.
There are now less people in the buyer’s pool. The covid exodus has concluded and buyers from Sydney and other capital cities have diminished. Most buyers are local people, with some rare exceptions. This is another example of the market returning to more normal times.
In many ways, our market is caught up in a much bigger chain reaction, where sales have slowed in Sydney, and this means less people are buying in Byron and Suffolk Park, and this then affects the local buying pool and has a bearing on our market.
There are also many other outside factors contributing to our market, such as rising interest rates (see right) and the federal election. In the lead up to an election, real estate typically slows down as people grow more cautious and wait to see who wins government and what this can mean for their personal circumstances. This is despite the fact that the outcome may have little direct affect.
Investors are currently sitting on the sidelines of the market, waiting for opportunity and looking for bargains.
Read more in my Winter 2022 newsletter . . . .
Given the size and magnitude of the recent flood emergency, just how the floods will affect the local property market is hard to know.
After the Brisbane floods of 2011, some flood impacted suburbs experienced a 6-10 per cent loss in value, so we can guestimate a 10 per cent devaluation on flood affected areas within our region as buyers step back from the market.
However, we want to stress that these decisions are likely to be temporary. Drawing again from the Brisbane flood experience in 2011, the decline kicked into recovery mode some ten months later and had fully recovered within three years. We do expect there will be a bounce back locally over time as cleanups conclude and the community rebuilds. Whether you believe it was a one in 100-year flood; or one in 500 years; or one in 3,500 years – things will recover.
In the short term, buyers are likely to be more interested in higher positioned suburbs that were unaffected by the flood, such as East Ballina, Lennox Head and Alstonville. We can expect that demand and price rises are likely in these areas as buyers respond to the flood aftermath.
How the flood impacts rentals also remains to be seen. With the area in what is now a severe housing crisis, rents may be unaffected from within the flood zone. If we draw again from the Brisbane experience of 2011, none of the affected suburbs saw a decline in rental value. Instead, rents rose some four per cent within the first year. A more likely scenario is that rental prices outside of the flood impacted zone will continue their upward trajectory.
Prior to the flood event, the local world of real estate was still very busy, with strong demand, but not at the intensity levels that we experienced last year. Good properties were achieving excellent prices; whereas middle of the road properties were selling well, but not achieving the outlandish prices of their luxurious cousins.
Interest rates are on the rise for the first time in forever. Particularly longer-term fixed rates. This is likely to affect the market moving forward as buyers start to feel the pinch of increased mortgage repayments.
View more in my Autumn newsletter which contains links to flood assistance sites.
The north coast property market continues to strengthen and is in a better position than just three months ago. We now have more stock for buyers, with the traditional Spring market bringing out a moderate rise in new properties for sale. What’s on offer? Right now we’re seeing investors selling, with a number of units and investment properties up for sale, and their owners capitalising on the excellent market. Some of these properties are being purchased by non-investors, and this is having a direct impact on rental market availability.
Whilst things have improved and prices remain strong, the housing market remains relatively tight, with plenty of people missing out. Those that miss out are widening their net and looking further afield to areas like Alstonville and Lismore, and this inland migration micro trend is helping to push up prices right across the region.
For our immediate area, Lennox and East Ballina remain on parity for the hot spot tag, with interest in these two locations proving unstoppable.
Cumbalum is also becoming a popular destination for people looking for new homes. This region is rapidly becoming more established and offers a better price point.
First Home buyers are a strong presence in the unit market. This is a more affordable property option for this demographic, although unit prices remain strong.
We still continue to operate in unprecedented times, particularly within the high-end luxury property market, with some crazy prices rewriting the record books. And this is one of many factors helping to drive the overall market upwards.
Byron Bay remains the main real estate market driver, with our northern neighbour’s sale prices regularly making headlines. We’re also seeing a flush through effect, where former Sydney siders are buying in Byron, and sellers from Byron are then relocating to our region. With the Byron market effectively twice the price of Ballina/Lennox, these buyers are in an excellent position to outbid everyone, and this is in turn affects prices and availability in this market. When you consider that Byron looks cheap to a Sydneysider; and then Ballina/Lennox looks cheap to a buyer from Byron, it’s likely that this trend will continue to affect our market for some time.
Having said this, we are also not expecting to see a significant new wave of migration from Sydney to the Northern Rivers. Our feeling is that those who can move have most likely already done so. We’ll see how this prediction plays out in the months ahead.
With state borders opening up, we are seeing people moving more freely. This welcome change has had a knock-on effect within the market, as people who were previously sitting on the fence with their property and waiting for things to settle now becoming more confident about committing to a sale and moving on.
It is hard to predict what the next twelve months will look like as we remain in unchartered waters. From this point in time the market could go up or it could go down. However, one thing remains true, and that is to never try and pick the ‘top’ of the market. It may have already peaked, or the peak may be yet to come. Our advice to anyone considering selling is to sell when the time is right for you, and to then own that decision.
It’s a curious thing to be reflecting on real estate market conditions on the North Coast after emerging from five weeks of lockdown smack bang into what is traditionally our busiest period. As usual, COVID continues to rewrite the rulebook, but there are plenty of signs that lead us to believe that the tsunami of demand for North Coast property is going to continue.
In July and immediately prior to lockdown, we experienced a noticeable growth in both demand and FOMO. The lockdown has simply put transactions on ice for a few weeks, and we confidently predict that there will be some catching up to do now that lockdown has lifted. Combine this with a Spring market and there’s potential for a double bounce.
While demand is strong, property supply is limited. And this means it is truly a sellers’ market. Every new listing is highly anticipated and hotly contested by an eager buyer group.
Right now, we have many buyers and underbidders who have narrowly missed out on recent sales and are poised and ready, keen not to miss out again.
People are continuing to relocate from the cities to our region and this pattern will likely continue until we achieve some sort of post covid milestone. And with its reputation as a playground for the rich and famous, we are also seeing people from outside the area purchasing second properties in our region, and this is helping to accelerate demand and squeeze supply.
The rolling hills of our hinterland region remains sought after for the cashed-up buyer seeking space and privacy.
The investment market has been gathering pace with investors adamant that price and demand are only going to continue to head north in our region. We certainly have a very strong rental demand at present, so people looking to enter the investment market have the reassurance of a healthy interest in their rental.
The owner occupier market has continued its strong growth as more people want to call the north coast home. We are also seeing quite a few first home buyers entering the property market, with a particular interest in units. And this is understandable with the entry price for a home in Ballina now around $700,000 and units providing the only affordable option for some.
Which purchasers do best in the current market? Those who are serious, have their finances fully approved, and are ready to jump. The early bird really does get the worm.
For anyone reading this newsletter who is toying with the idea of selling, consider reaching out to us. We can offer an obligation free appraisal of your property and explain the likely scenarios for a happy, healthy and stress-free sale. Sellers hold all the aces in the current market. It is simply one of the best times to be selling a home. Read more in my Spring 2021 newsletter . . .
Late 2020 and early 2021 has certainly been one for the record books in the Northern Rivers with off the scale demand and short supply creating a fierce FOMO mindset and a market unlike anything seen in more than 30 years.
Right now, the market continues its strong performance, but the frenetic urgency that we have witnessed over the last nine months has mildly waned. FOMO has left the building.
When the market took off in September last year, we witnessed a sharp rise in property prices. Now that the excitement and urgency have come out of the equation, people are taking a more considered approach to purchasing property. With prices remaining steady, people are no longer buying homes the day that they come onto the market. Rather, they are taking their time, performing due diligence and making educated purchasing decisions
While those very special properties at the very top end of the market continue to set record prices, the rest of the market can be described as strong and steady. Perhaps an exception to this is Lennox Head, which remains a boom market. The premium prices being commanded by rural and semi-rural properties also shows no sign of slowing, as buyers seek both space and lifestyle following COVID challenges and city lockdowns.
Numbers at open houses remain excellent but are marginally less than in the crazy months following September 2020.
The Ballina and Lennox region is still experiencing an overflow of buyers who are being priced out of the Byron Bay and Suffolk property market – with many of these buyers quickly realizing that the lower price and slower pace of life in our region should have been their Plan A all along.
Despite the uncertainty that COVID has delivered, our favourite most intangible thing – confidence – remains ever present, and it is this element that is engineering a strength and depth to the local market. Confidence is no doubt being underpinned by the record low interest rates that we are experiencing, coupled with some very generous fixed rates by many of the major lenders.
One of the biggest challenges facing us as agents is managing seller expectations. Many sellers think that property prices will continue to rise but this may or may not happen. The last nine months was unprecedented and should not be seen as part of the normal real estate cycle. It was perhaps a once in a generation event that is now showing signs of tapering. What we can say is that this area will continue to be a growth area – as more and more people discover the beauty, charm and livability of our region – but prices cannot continue to progress like they have in the last nine months for ever onwards. At some point, the ascent must plateau.
We are seeing a mixed bag of retiree and younger stakeholders operating in the investor market, but higher property prices are generally putting new entrants off entering this market.
Career prospects for builders and tradies have never been better than they are on the north coast right now, with the building boom in Lennox and Ballina Heights alone ensuring years of consistent work for these professions.
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The weather may be starting to cool down but here in the world of real estate on the far north coast, things remain scorching, in what is a highly competitive, fast moving market. The December-February period saw an influx of activity, driven primarily by exceptional demand as the regional renaissance from city to country continues.
Prices across the region are moving up. Domain announced in January this year that Byron Bay experienced the highest house price growth of any suburb in the country in 2020. REA Group reported in 2020 that Byron Bay’s median house price surged by 36 per cent to $1.87M, buoyed by accelerating celebrity appeal. Meanwhile, nearby Bangalow was named as Australia’s best-performing regional centre over the past two decades in a report released by the REA Group during February. There’s no question that this growth has prompted a spill over effect into neighbouring regions like our own, and this has been felt from the mid north coast up to the Queensland border.
You will have seen some of the recent headlines. ‘Booming Byron pushes locals out of market’, ‘City slickers leave Sydney and Canberra in droves for regional NSW’, and ‘Byron Bay property prices continue to surge’ are just some of the many on offer exploring all aspects of the region’s growing popularity.
And while a booming property market is generally good news, not everyone benefits. Renters are experiencing escalating rental prices and there is an underbelly of rental shortages and homelessness across the region resulting in people seeking short term accommodation in motels, and sometimes their cars. We are encountering people from Byron who are selling because they are over the whole ‘vibe’ which they believe is being superseded by the entry of ostentatious wealth. These people are choosing to instead purchase in Ballina and Lennox, which presents a more affordable and less pretentious living environment. Well, we like to think so anyway!
When will things slow down? It’s a good question that can’t be answered with precision. February was extraordinary (and that’s not a word we use every day). Markets are built and dismantled on the presence or absence of trust and confidence, and these are intangible, non-material phenomena that can be as elusive as the wind. Nothing underpins confidence, but when it is present, its effect is undeniable and infectious. However, when you consider the regionalisation effect brought about by the pandemic, the viability of work from home, the current FOMO thinking, super low interest rates and the undeniable beauty of our region, we do feel that things have a way to go before any slowdown takes place.
How do you time your run to get the best out of the market? For people considering selling their property, be aware that right now buyers are willing to pay tomorrow’s prices today to get into the market. If you are considering selling, don’t put it off. We are experiencing one of the strongest markets we have seen in years, however strong markets don’t last forever, and
it’s prudent to take advantage of them when they appear.
Who are the best buyers? The best buyers are cash ready from day one. These people jump the queue and secure properties despite the competition by making firm offers early, having their finances in order, and with a crack team of conveyancers ready to roll. Read more in my Autumn newsletter . . .
As Glenn Frey famously sang in 1984, The heat is on! Summer has arrived and so has the real estate action. This action is building from a very hotly contested Spring market, with interest only continuing to grow.
Out of towners are continuing to dominate the very top end of the market, and this top tier is yielding some jaw dropping prices. Outsiders have the cash and the means to cherry pick the very best properties in our market.
Of course, no-one wants to leave the area, so we have a situation where new people are moving here and very few people are moving away. It creates a high demand / low supply market where those properties that are available are fiercely contested.
While out of towners are dominating the top end; there remains plenty of locals combined with people relocating to our region who are robustly contesting everything else.
In many ways, it’s counter intuitive to have a strong market like this at the end of a year that we will never forget; but we can thank COVID for its part in this situation. Yes, as we reported in our last newsletter, there are plenty of people moving here from the cities who wish to escape the limitations caused by lockdowns. Coupled with this, there’s also the working from home phenomenon which is creating a workplace paradigm shift such as we haven’t seen in decades. The pandemic has proven life changing for many of us and has caused a rethink in values and priorities. Quality of life is featuring large in the decision making of many home buyers; and people are firmly looking beyond a pay rise or a promotion towards a much bigger picture. What was important before is not necessarily important now.
We can only speculate on how long this high price / high demand situation will last? Will it be all over in a couple of months; or is this the start of a new wave of sea-change internal immigration that may flow on for years? When do we reach the top of the market? We are in unchartered waters. What we can say is people from Sydney and Melbourne see value in our current prices; whereas locals feel the prices are a little steep. It’s an interesting difference in perspective.
Prices are rising! While all properties across the board are experiencing a price rise, the degree of rise is variable. The prestige market is off the chart. Small acreage is highly sought after, as is the hinterland. And anything on the coast with a view is gold. People are valuing space and privacy. However everything is selling!
All markets on the north coast are experiencing the surge. Both coast and hinterland are highly desirable. It’s also really pleasing to see that the surge is also making it into the inland regions, with towns like Dubbo and Wagga experiencing growth. Perhaps in time it will show as a generational change in population?
A downside for people considering selling in the current market is the worry that they may not be able to find or afford a replacement home. Whilst people are confident in their ability to sell their home for a good price, their next concern is finding somewhere else to live in a market with low supply and stiff competition. This is compounded by the lack of rentals at present, which are a traditional fallback when a replacement home cannot be found within the timeframe. These are small town centric issues which do not affect our city cousins, but they do affect the overall fluidity of our market.
We mentioned in a former issue about selling ‘off-market’. An off-market sale is when a property is sold without public advertisement, usually to a buyer already on a database. Whilst there is a time and place for this strategy, we strongly advise people not to sell off-market in this current climate as you will potentially lose out on the best deal. Best practice right now is to put your house up for auction and let the market determine what your property is worth. Sales are maximised when properties have been given proper market exposure. Chances are, there will be multiple interested parties and this will push up the price. Its simple economics, but we are seeing this result play out daily. Read more in my Summer 2020 newsletter . . .
In these (cliché alert) unpredictable and unprecedented times (we did warn you) many of you might expect us to report that real estate is flat lining right now. We are happy to report that it is anything but. In fact, we are presently riding a little wave, although it is proving a bit of a bumpy ride. Some are winning big and some are winning small; but everyone is winning.
So what’s fuelling this wave of real estate activity on the north coast? There are a bunch of factors at play.
Probably the biggest contributor to the equation is the shift in work practices necessitated by COVID-19. Oodles of people found themselves working from home as the pandemic struck, and from this exercise they learned two simple things: ONE – working from home was entirely possible to do once you had the right technology in place, and in fact – they quite liked it (no long commute to and from work etc); and TWO – they realised that they could probably do this from anywhere, so let’s relocate to somewhere nice and we’ll all live happily ever after.
A third element contributing to a favourable property market is the realisation amongst some that if the pandemic is going to keep swirling around causing multiple switches in and out of shut-down, then they might as well be living it in space and comfort, amongst beautiful surroundings.
Some in real estate are calling these factors the coastal shift. Whatever you want to call it, it’s driving a tectonic shift in buyer habits. There are buyers who are fleeing COVID affected areas; some are departing from city living; and other buyers are locals who are changing the way they work. There is general dissatisfaction about the decision making of people in authority, and buyers are taking charge of their destiny.
Our region is seen as a safe bet. At the time of publication, we’re fortunate that our COVID numbers are low; we have NBN broadband installed throughout a lot of the region; we’re close to busy airports for when travel restrictions lift; we have good infrastructure; the region is blessed with natural beauty, and our community is welcoming. Who wouldn’t want to live here?
Throw in the historically low interest rates which help to minimise risk and you have a mini real estate boom. We are yet to see if this will become a new trend or a short-lived blimp. Significant economic fallout is yet to be really felt here; perhaps the pain is still coming? Or are we on the cusp of a market mega-boom, with the smart people securing things now before prices get away from them? Only time will tell.
All types of property are currently in demand. The most sought-after properties remain the ones with nothing left to do, but buyers are prepared to renovate or to build – and everything is up for grabs at the right price. Some places are selling within a week. At the high end of the market, the buying pool has real depth, and we are seeing scenarios where a number of serious buyers are tousling for individual properties.
Buyers are contacting us to let us know they are looking and they want to be at the front of the line as new properties come onto the market. And many of these buyers have healthy budgets. Buyers are well represented across the board, and include baby boomers, families, individuals and newly marrieds. Some people are buying for immediate occupancy, and others are buying now with plans to move here in five years. Bigger blocks are sought after because they provide better opportunities for space and coping if and when lock down returns.
The current scenario certainly feels like an early Spring market. But it’s more than this. High property demand is colliding with a short supply and this is having a curious effect on prices. Prices are jumping and this makes it difficult to accurately predict. Certainly, competition is seeing some great results, and the market is moving quickly.
There’s another factor also weaving its way back into the current real estate tapestry, and that’s FOMO. Rather than sit on the fence, people are jumping into the action to ensure they don’t miss out. And this starts to drive momentum as others also heed the call and jump in – with the mantra ‘we should be moving because the market is booming’ ringing loudly. And so the ripple effect potentially becomes a wave.
Border closures mean that immigration has stopped, and this has a flow through effect to the market. There’s credible speculation that Sydney will experience a downturn, especially as people move out with no-one moving in to replace them. Perhaps Sydney’s pain will be our gain? Emotion and FOMO are twin driving forces and they’re delivering a rising yet unpredictable market.
The final piece of the puzzle that seems to be driving prices is the Hollywood factor, with some big names living here permanently and many visiting for long periods. There are also a number of productions currently being filmed here, and these aspects really cement our region as a destination of choice for people keen to relocate.
Probably the only brake on real estate right now is the tightening of lending criteria from the banks. It can take up to four weeks for a home loan to be approved, with banks also considering job security in the context of the current environment as they assess loan applications. With some traditionally strong industries struggling during the pandemic, and banks being harder on business owners and the self-employed, this is removing a few people from the buyers pool. To be strongly positioned when the right property presents, buyers need to have their banking pre-approvals in order.
There has been much talk about these ‘unprecedented’ times. As a word, it is getting an unprecedented amount of coverage. So, we will just refer to the period of Autumn 2020 as ‘unusual’.
In April and May, life in the world of real estate (and everywhere else) was unusual. But you will be pleased to know that things are now settling down.
So, what did unusual look like? Well throughout the whole lockdown period we continued to receive enquiries for property. And we also continued to achieve sales throughout this period as well. Admittedly, these sales were for properties that were already on the market rather than new listings, but it is important to state that while Australia went into isolation, the property market did not. Typically, we were dealing with people that were serious about buying or selling, with speculators light on the ground during this time.
There was a four-week window where we couldn’t offer open houses. Once that concluded, we were pleasantly surprised at the numbers of people coming through. In fact, numbers were what we would normally see, outside of COVID-19.
We have all read the stories about a predicted downturn in the property market. Some have predicted as high as a 30 per cent drop. Others are leaning towards a more modest reduction. We do expect that there will be an adjustment, but it will be nothing like the worst-case scenarios being painted by more sensationalist media commentators.
And without the benefit of a crystal ball, can anyone really know? There are many post-isolation factors still to be played out. The market is directly affected by job security, so the timing of the conclusion of the job keeper allowance will likely have an impact. Our Treasurer has signaled that Australia is now in a recession, but the extent of the recession will not be apparent until data from the June quarter comes to light. And meanwhile, it appears that other world economies are in significantly worse shape – so maybe we are the lucky country after all?
But we need to be realistic about prices and acknowledge that a downturn is likely. Premium house prices can only be achieved in a market with strong demand and short supply. And today’s north coast property market is characterised by weakening demand and a moderate growth in supply. Which is a complete flip on what we experienced just a few short months ago at the beginning of 2020.
The key take home messages are that yes, things are moving more slowly than before, but if a property is priced correctly, it will sell. And if you are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a bargain, you might be waiting a while.
Demand for property remains relatively strong considering the overall environment, but it now comes with some strings attached, with purchasers keeping one eye on the horizon to see if any of the doomsday predictions are coming through. Meanwhile, supply has weakened with many potential sellers currently sitting on the fence and waiting to see which way the market will move. Right now, if you don’t have to sell then there is no incentive to sell. However, it’s inevitable that the market will adjust, and supply will catch up as time goes on. Time does not wait! There are always people who need to buy and sell regardless of outside factors: people need to sell as their work location changes; retirees downsize; families upsize as their numbers grow; and there’s no shortage of young couples moving into the market.
People move to our region for a reason. It is rarely for a local job. Often, they are downsizers or sea changers looking primarily for lifestyle. We also predict a second wave of big city migration to our region, as city dwellers who have been working from home make the connection that a work from home arrangement is a viable way to earn a crust, and that relocating to a cheaper ‘lifestyle’ region with access to broadband, good schools and airports might just make for a better life. In tandem with this, people may also make the connection that living in low density housing means more personal space and better access to the great outdoors should we experience a pandemic second wave.
Within our region, demand remains steady for properties in Lennox Village and East Ballina, followed by Ballina Island. We are still seeing sales above $1M, with demand for both high and low ends of the market relatively equal. The median price in Lennox is now over $1M. Houses are more in demand than units. Properties in the $500,000 – $800,000 price bracket are selling relatively well, as are properties in $1M – $1.2M bracket.
If you are thinking of selling but have been sitting on the fence; now may be a better time than later to jump in as you will be ahead of the inevitable catch up period.
Aside from the usual holiday speculators, the festive season is not traditionally a busy time in real estate; but this year has proven to be an exception. There was genuine high interest and activity throughout December and January, with many properties sold.
During February, this equation changed. While the high numbers of buyers remained, the supply of properties to buy reduced. In fact, what we saw was a growth in the number of people entering the buyers pool, with a corresponding decrease of supply.
What’s driving this growth in demand for properties?
There are a few reasons. Firstly, historically low interest rates are providing a unique opportunity for more people than ever to gain a toehold into the property market. In tandem with this, there is a steady migration into the property investment market as a consequence of the low interest rates. Growth in buyer interest is also being spurred on by the banks becoming marginally more flexible in their lending criteria as the dust settles post banking royal commission, meaning that the process of securing a loan has become a little easier.
Similarly, the decline in supply can be attributed to a couple of factors. One is that, generally speaking, people are not under financial duress and do not have to sell. Another telling factor is the subset of people who want to sell, but with limited current options to purchase, are choosing to wait out this current scenario until they have more choice. And this later thinking process creates a catch22 situation, where because there is less to buy, people don’t sell, and a cycle is created.
This type of market is characterised by quick sales, competitive offers and great prices. Essentially people are eagerly contesting the small pool, and this has the effect of pushing prices up.
In a hot market like this, sales might not just come from an agent’s data base. To achieve the best outcome for the vendor, agents need to be across all aspects of their sales arsenal including digital marketing to provide optimum exposure from multiple buyer pools.
What’s been really positive is that in the last few months, almost all properties destined for auction have either sold prior or on the day. Offers range from the target price to above target, and importantly – sellers are very satisfied with the results.
Another consequence of a reduced supply and high demand market is that buyers are less picky and will look at everything. This scarcity of stock means one thing: It really is a great time to sell!